| Poll No.2 Survey # 2: The Palestinian Intifada and the Peace Process Time & Date of publication: Evening, 13 November 2000 Date of field research: 6-8 November 2000 Sample size: 1,234 Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip Number of field researchers: 55 male and female researchers Number of sample locations: 75 locations Percentage of error: (+ or – 3%) First: Background – A time of conflict In analyzing the results of the present opinion poll, it is important to take into account the period during which the field research was conducted, as it could well be among the most difficult periods that Palestinian society has ever lived through. Throughout the data collection period (September 29th – early November 2000), the West Bank and Gaza saw near constant clashes with the Israeli Occupation Forces. These confrontations resulted in the following: 1) Over 174 Palestinians were killed, more than one-third of them children, and over 8,000 Palestinians were wounded. Of the wounded, over 1,000 sustained injuries that will result in permanent disability. On the Israeli side, the number of those killed was 10, most of them soldiers or settlers. 2) For the first time in decades, Israel bombarded Palestinian cities and towns, using artillery and tank fire. These assaults lead to the destruction of a large number of houses and civilian and security establishments. 3) During the last few months, the West Bank has been totally separated from the Gaza Strip. Both regions have been cut off completely from Jerusalem. In addition, all major towns have been cut off from each other. As a result, large numbers of Palestinians were not allowed to reach their places of work or visit their families. 4) The recent Israeli siege prevented about 120,000 Palestinian workers from reaching their places of work inside Israel. In addition, the import and export of raw materials was prohibited. The various border closures, moreover, led to a hike in unemployment rates, reaching an estimated 45% in the Gaza Strip and 33% in the West Bank. The siege also resulted in severe economic losses, estimated between 500 million and one billion US dollars during the first five weeks of the Intifada. 5) Throughout the same period, various meetings have been held between the PNA, Israel, USA, Egypt, Jordan and others. Most of these discussions have focused on reaching an agreement to put an end to “acts of violence” and to prepare for a resumption of negotiations. Among the most important of these meetings was the Sharm al-Shaikh summit (16-17 October 2000). The results of these meetings have not had a significant impact on the continuing Intifada. 6) Throughout the current Intifada, Palestinian society has attempted to maintain a semblance of normal life. After initial closures, most children have returned to school despite major Israeli hurdles. Most Palestinian shops have been kept at least partially open throughout the conflict. Work has continued in PNA ministries and other civil-society institutions, though their work has been negatively affected by the siege. 7) An emergency Arab Summit convened in Cairo on 21-22 October 2000, amidst popular protests and demonstrations in most Arab and Islamic capitals. The Summit held Israel responsible for the violence and a fund was set up to support the Palestinians. Meanwhile, Morocco, Oman and Tunisia broke off relations with the State of Israel. All this was accompanied by demonstrations in support of the Palestinian people in different countries around the world. The current Intifada has been fueled by recent events that have evolved over the past few years. These include, inter alia: 1) The peace process initiated in 1991 failed to achieve political solutions to the Palestine question on the basis of international legitimacy and UN Resolutions 242 and 338. The interim period that was supposed to be over in 1999 dragged on with no end in site. All of the core issues that are of utmost concern to the Palestinians (the question of Jerusalem, refugees, borders, water and settlements) have not yet been resolved. The establishment, in the short-term, of an independent sovereign Palestinian state is seen as unlikely. 2) Meanwhile, Israel continued to tighten its stranglehold on the Palestinians and has strengthened its occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This has been achieved by expropriating land, establishing new settlements, increasing the number of settlers, and securing control over borders, water, and most of the Palestinian land. At the same time, Israeli policies have severed ties between and inside the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This situation reflects the various agreements that have given Israel absolute control over Areas (C), major control over Areas (B), and the ability to impose permanent siege over Areas (A). 3) In the wake of the peace process, Palestinian living conditions have not improved. In fact, the gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by more than 20 percent. Border closures have been maintained, increasing unemployment. At its best, the Palestinian poverty rate was 23 percent. Headlines: Results Summary 74% of Palestinians oppose the participation of children in the confrontations at the barricades. The majority of Palestinians (57.8%) support the continuation of the peace process on the basis of international legitimacy and UN resolutions. The percentage of those who support military attacks against Israeli targets has increased to 80% in the present poll (compared with about 33% in mid-March 1995, and 44% in early August 1998). Of those who support military attacks, 41% support attacks directed against all Israeli targets, while 38% support limiting them against settlers and military targets. Opposition to military attacks against Israeli civilians living within Israel is 60%, while it is 45% in Gaza. Only 4% gave a positive evaluation of the outcome of the Arab Summit held in Cairo, while 67.5% evaluated it negatively, and 23% evaluated it as neutral. 75% support the continuation of the current Intifada, and 68% believe that the main goal is liberation and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. 45.8% evaluate the performance of President Arafat positively, while 17.8% evaluate it negatively, and 33% consider it medium. 73% support military operations against American targets in the region. 78% of the Palestinians believe that an independent state will be established sooner or later. 57% gave a positive evaluation of the stands taken by Arab peoples, while 18% evaluated them negatively, and 23% evaluated them as medium. Other Findings 39% support the continuation of the negotiations under the sponsorship of the UN, while only 3.2% support that they remain under the sponsorship of the USA. The majority (51%) believe that the peace process that started in 1993 will not lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, compared with 33% in February of 1995. One-third of the Palestinians believe that there is a possibility for co-existence with the Israelis once a Palestinian state is established. The great majority of Palestinians consider that there is no possibility for peace without Jerusalem as the capital of the independent Palestinian state or without securing the right of refugees to return. 44% believe that the right of return can be implemented in full, while 44% do not believe so. 85% of the Palestinians consider Ehud Barak to be a Prime Minister who is not qualified to negotiate with the Palestinians. An increase in support for the declaration of a state from 55% (end of August 2000) to 71%, despite Israeli and American opposition. 45% believe that living conditions have regressed in the wake of the peace process, while 41% believe they have not changed, and only 14% consider that living conditions have improved. The recent siege led to the deterioration of living conditions for 86% of the Palestinians and 85% felt their children experienced psychological trauma. 31% evaluate the performance of the PNA, in political terms, positively, while 36% evaluate it as medium, and 27.5% evaluate it negatively. A higher percentage of the educated evaluated the PNA negatively. The survey found a positive evaluation of the role of the security forces (46.8%), of the political parties (58.9%), and the NGOs (41.7%) during the Intifada. The Palestinian media gets the best evaluation among all institutions (80%). The majority (57%) believe that the leadership of Palestinian society is capable of leading Palestinians to better conditions, while the majority of the educated do not believe so. 51% believe that the PNA respects the opinion of the public, while 59% believe that the PNA does not inform the public of what is taking place in the political arena. 30% believe that the Intifada will continue for months, while 25% believe it will continue for years. 24% support peaceful means of demonstrating for continuing the Intifada, 39% support both peaceful and military means, and 32% support mainly military means. 20% feel secure about the future of coming generations, compared to 50% at the end of August 2000. The great majority of Palestinians want a state based on equality and the rule of law. 93% support the establishment of a national unity government that includes all political factions. 56% believe in the need to hold new Palestinian presidential and legislative elections. If elections were held today, most Palestinians are undecided for whom they would vote for, or whether they will take part in the elections at all (48%). As for those who would vote (52%), President Arafat would still get the highest percentage of votes (30%) (without any significant change from the percentage he received in earlier polls conducted before the start of the Intifada), Ahmad Yassin got 12%, and Haidar Abdul-Shafi 10%. The percentage of Hamas supporters went up, especially in the Gaza Strip. 45% do not support any of the factions. Second: Methodology 1) The sample: In this opinion poll, 1,234 Palestinians were interviewed. They were selected in a scientific manner (random and representative – multi-stage sample), taking into account geographic and governorate distribution. Samples considered living location – villages, cities and camps, gender and all age groups, starting with the age of 16 (as can be seen in Annex no. 2). The exceptional circumstances under which the present poll was conducted led to the exclusion of two villages that were replaced by two other villages in the same governorate. Both villages had comparable social and economic conditions. This replacement was necessary after the first two villages were sealed off and attacked by Israeli soldiers and settlers, leading to a high degree of risk to our field researchers. 2) The field research: The field research was conducted according to the scientific rules followed by DSP researchers under normal circumstances. The prevailing circumstances in this case led to greater attention to the safety of the field researchers, avoiding entry into areas that could place their lives at risk. Despite the difficult conditions, the enthusiasm and courage of the field researchers led them to adhere to the rules of field research: neutrality while remaining highly sensitive to the hard psychological and living conditions suffered by the Palestinians. Each research team was made up of one young man and woman. They were chosen from a group of trained researchers who have been working for many years and have long-standing experience. The best researchers were selected from among those who have worked previously with other centres, in addition to the well-experienced researchers of the DSP. During the various training sessions, the importance of integrity and scientific neutrality were underlined. Their capacities were developed with a focus on interview methods and mapping skills. Field-work coordinators carried out field visits to verify that researchers had reached their work locations, and had selected the sample according to the set scientific rules. 3) The questionnaire: The questionnaire was prepared by a group of well-known Palestinian researchers, who proposed the issues and questions that should be covered by the poll. The DSP has set up a steering committee for opinion polls, made up of accredited researchers, experts and statisticians, to supervise the work involved in the preparation of the methodology, the questionnaire and data analysis. 4) Data-entry and data-analysis: Data from the West Bank was entered and analyzed according to the statistical program (SPSS). Data analysis was conducted under the supervision of a senior Palestinian expert. Data from the Gaza Strip was entered by well-known researchers. The two files were then merged through electronic-mail. | ||
2000 Opinion Poll #2
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